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    Wednesday, July 15th, 2009
    patrissimo
    6:02p
    kindle
    Hopefully I screwed up and put the broken kindle in my backpack instead of the replacement. Because otherwise, that would mean that after my first Kindle failed, I got 2 bad replacements in a row. Either that, or I am cursed to break Kindles that come near me.
    martian687
    8:41p
    Three Namers
    Recently I've noticed an explosion in the "three namer" population on Facebook. This community seems to be entirely made up of married women who set their Facebook preferences to display their full names of Firstname Maidenname Marriedname. I'm not sure why this bothers me so much; perhaps because it seems like yet another not-so-subtle way of shouting their marital status from the rooftops? Perhaps it's the fact that only married women seem to do it? (You never see any single three namer women or three namer men of any marital status.) Perhaps it's because it seems like they're trying to straddle the line between buying into the traditional patriarchy and retaining their own identity?

    I can understand why women (or men) would adopt their partner's name – it makes a lot of sense logistically. Similarly, I can understand why both parties would choose to retain their original names. This woman-takes-on-three-names thing, however, totally makes me roll my eyes.
    patrissimo
    1:18p
    commodities
    Exited almost all my longs a few weeks ago, put some in commodities (largely silver), left some in cash. Down a bit for a couple weeks, but this week doing much better. Jim Rogers' claim is: "If the global economy gets better, commodities are going to go crazy. If it doesn't, they are a better store of value than fiat currencies"

    I want to diversity into carefully chosen foreign stocks though, that's what I might use Schiff's firm for.

    I am so glad I invested in Palantir, I feel way better about a small growing company that I am optimistic about compared to publicly traded corporations or making wild guesses about global macro when I'm just a dabbling retail investor.
    prock
    12:59p
    random gcc trivia
    :| gcc -dM -E -x c - | less

    will tell you what's defined by the compiler
    patrissimo
    1:00p
    parenting and nature vs. nurture, a mine of infinite depth
    [info]radiantsun: "I'm curious, in the context of your belief that kids turn out mostly from nature, how does nurture overiding nature affect that?"

    1) The number of these nature/nurture interactions that have been found is relatively small, I believe that a big deal is made out of them b/c people like challenges to nature being important. (I just saw a blog post about this, forget where though)

    2) If there really are nature/nurture interactions, they would show up statistically as environmental effects. If a trait is 60% heritable, that means 60% of the variation in the trait comes from variation in genes. 40% comes from variation in other places, like prenatal environment and family/neighborhood environment. A gene that expresses differently depending on the family environment is will produce variation in outcome depending on family environment and thus gets partially counted in the analysis of environment. In other words, the studies Judith Harris talks about that say family environment has 0% impact on personality would find these effects if they existed. Since they find no measurable effects on broad personality characteristics, these effects are likely rare and/or minor.

    3) As I have commented in Shannon's journal, the set of things that has been studied and found no family environment effect is pretty small. IQ & Big 5 Personality Test scores are the ones I am most sure have been studied. I have also seen claims for literacy and divorce being things that disappear when you control for genetics (and changes in neighborhoods/income, for divorce), and for crime. Harris makes the general claim that most things sociologists find correlations for are caused by genes, not by family environment, but I have not seen a variety of studies to back this up.

    [info]peter_bayesian says in [info]choiceful's post: "She's referring to nearly all the measures that were used in the 20th century by researchers who claimed to have shown that parenting style X causes children to have behavior Y after they leave home. That means standard personality tests, crime rates, and many other things. I don't recall any researchers claiming to have measured an effect of parenting styles on adult happiness ratings, so there may not be any of those for her to discredit. She has no new research, just arguments against the bad research that's out there."

    And he provides some specific cites for crime. It would not surprise me if Harris' claim was true, and it seems to have held up in the areas where it has specifically been looked at, but I have not seen the wide variety of evidence that would support such a broad claim. And her discussion w/ Bryan Caplan implied she didn't have data on outcomes.

    Thus there are many remaining aspects of a person's character which may be influenced by their upbringing (family environment), and which may be important to happiness and life. One can believe in Harris' thesis, and still believe that parenting matters. Plus there is the question of how much you enjoy the time where the kids are at home, as [info]choiceful said: "less ideal circumstances are less pleasant for the time that a kid is at home! ... It *counts* that a child is unhappy when beaten, for example."
    patrissimo
    11:48a
    Ephemerisle price points
    Another Ephemerisle poll, this one is more specialized than the last one, since it only applies if you are considering attending Ephemerisle.

    Basically, Ephemerisle is going to be pretty expensive due to insurance, complexity, and the cost of building floating platforms (for common space, docks, and camping) which are only amortized over a few days use per year. (ie the per-square foot cost for our homebuilt platforms is much lower than a commercial floating dock, but still pretty high for a 2-day festival). If we charged full cost, we think very few people would come. So we're probably going to subsidize it and lose some money on the festival, hopefully in return for value in promoting seasteading (and a shot at recouping our investment later by throwing additional festivals on the same set of platforms, although this is tough b/c we want to push the festival to rougher international waters).

    In deciding how much to subsidize it, it would help to know the demand curve. Obviously y'all are not a representative sample of potential attendees, but you are who you are and you represent yourselves (yo, self represent!) and that's better than nothing. Y'all were very helpful on the charity poker tournament poll (thanks!), so here's another...

    For these questions, only answer if you're considering attending, and with the context that this is an event put on by a non-profit where none of these price points are making money (the highest is at best breaking even). Your individual answers will not be shown, only aggregate statistics. For each question, please choose the highest that you would pay, any higher and you would not attend the event. If you would definitely camp, then answer $0 for docking, if you would definitely dock, then answer $0 for camping. Also, when answering the dock/camping space questions, assume that general registration is $25:

    Poll #1430261 Ephemerisle Price Points
    Open to: All, detailed results viewable to: None

    How much would you pay for general registration?

    $0
    0 (0.0%)

    $10
    0 (0.0%)

    $25
    4 (40.0%)

    $50
    1 (10.0%)

    $100
    4 (40.0%)

    more (hey, Burning Man is more!)
    1 (10.0%)

    How much would you pay to dock a boat or other floating structure for 2 nights, with 4' width of dock space along with the length of your vessel?

    $0 / foot
    4 (50.0%)

    $1 / foot
    0 (0.0%)

    $2 / foot
    3 (37.5%)

    $3 / foot
    1 (12.5%)

    How much would you pay for an 8'x8' camping space on the central island, for 2 nights?

    $0
    0 (0.0%)

    $25
    1 (11.1%)

    $50
    5 (55.6%)

    $100
    3 (33.3%)

    more
    0 (0.0%)



    Thanks so much!
    choiceful
    11:05a
    hypomanic -- sigh.
    I was still in denial this morning, but luckily I have Patri to watch my back (whether I like it or not ;) and he's succeeded in convincing me that I'm not "just in an especially good mood."

    In retrospect its been building up for awhile. I think the drama from last week was probably a mixed episode -- dysphoric mania. Its normal for me to have mood swings, but that one was much more extreme than normal.

    Over the past few days its switched in the the normal, much more fun hypomania state ;) Symptoms: sleeping less, being really happy, being extroverted, listening to loud energetic music and dancing around the house, sending... strange emails in the middle of the night, heightened sex drive and coming onto male friends,* lots of journaling, strong opinions, confidence/overconfidence/being a know it all. As a manifestation of the over-confidence -- having "break throughs" and/or coming up with "really insightful theories."

    Its still really mild right now, I'd love to be able to maintain at this level, aside from offending friends/getting myself in trouble with the over-confidence stuff, but sadly mania doesn't work that way. If left untreated it would keep ramping up until I started getting really crazy.

    Took Risperdal a few minutes ago. I should be "fine" shortly. *sniff*

    *So far I've had really good taste about this. I've consistently picked really nice guys who wouldn't take advantage of me, although in all cases I wouldn't feel bad about having hooked up with after the fact -- you should take me up on it, it would be fun! Just don't expect a relationship after the fact. ;) I'm glad it manifests for me as developing crushes on friends, as opposed to another common manic thing to do -- picking up strangers at bars.
    patrissimo
    10:49a
    auto-post tweets to LJ?
    LoudTwitter seems to have died just as I want to make a daily auto-post to LJ of my tweets. Anyone know how to do it via some trivial service (not having to run a script myself)?
    achanchinou
    1:00p
    Holy Poundage, Batman!
    So last Wednesday (or maybe thursday, I can't remember) I weighed myself at 214.something. Then I had a stomach virus like thingie where I basically spent three days puking up everything I ate.

    Today I weighed in at 204.2

    Jebus! That's a new record low for me. Wonder if I can keep it. I'm damn sure gonna try, and I'm also going to wear my goth pants to work today, since they now actually fit and don't cut in.
    patrissimo
    9:27a
    harry potter movie
    We are at the theater to see Bruno, and many teenagers are in line, often in costume, for tonights HP6 premiere.

    Some costumed kids get in line behind us, and one of them pulls out a hand-whittled wand and says "Hallo."

    "Woah, now", says I. "We ain't done nothing, no need to be castin' any spells."
    "Ah yes", says he, without missing a beat, "I always forget how easily Muggles get alarmed."
    choiceful
    3:09a
    knees -- I can really exercise now!
    I'm really amazed at how fast my body is responding to this new exercise regimen with my trainer! We've been training a lot harder these past couple of weeks, and I've increased my training days from 1/week to 2. Yay for knees feeling healthy and allowing me to work my legs!!! These have been by far the most intense workouts I've had since running x-country back in high school. I haven't dripped sweat like this in years. I'm surprised that just two days/week is whipping me into shape this fast, but the change over the last couple of weeks is really obvious and impressive!

    For those interested, I think what I'm doing is a lot like cross fit. Dynamic motions, often with weights, doing things like jumping rope, etc.

    I've tried exercising over the past several years, and not seen any weight loss results other than maintaining wherever I'm at. Apparently its simply been a matter of intensity. When I ran x-country in high school I was tiny -- and not just because I was young, I'd actually started getting chubby in middle school before joining the team.
    Tuesday, July 14th, 2009
    patrissimo
    11:28p
    Bruno facts
    Whatever you think about Sacha Baron-Cohen's sense of humor, he risks quite a bit in making his movies.

    spoiler stories of danger and excitement )
    patrissimo
    10:28p
    Professor Benjamin on Statistics vs. Calculus
    Saw prof. Benjamin at FreedomFest, and he mentioned his recent TED Talk on how we should replace high school Calculus with Statistics. It's only 3 minutes.

    An amusing side note you won't find in the video: Art said that the main special interest affecting the curriculum is textbook publishers, and they are indifferent to the change, so it can actually happen. (Unlike many other proposed alternative reforms).

    "Look, the world has changed from analog to digital. And it's time for our mathematics curriculum to change from analog to digital...to the mathematics of uncertainty, randomness, and data."
    patrissimo
    7:34p
    best place to sell a car?
    eBay? CraigsList? Dealer?

    (my Honda S2000, now that it has plates, can soon be sold!)
    patrissimo
    5:16p
    realizing health improvements
    I hadn't even really noticed, but my seasonal allergies have almost disappeared in the last year. I no longer take zyrtec daily. I used to have really bad allergies, when I first moved to NorCal I had one of those skin prick tests, and I exploded. Of 120 allergens, on a 1-5 scale, I had 113 that were 4 or higher. I was fond of saying I am allergic to anything with hair or leaves.

    But now I'm not! Cats still cause problems, and I occasionally take zyrtec, but not often. I am using a steroid nasal spray, but I did that before and it didn't help then. Not sure if the difference is my diet (paleo, lots of fermented foods), or something else. I do still get occasional random skin rashes, like a couple weeks ago after drinking a Smirnoff Ice, my torso broke out. So clearly I have some immune reactivity. But it is a lot better!

    Same goes with acid reflux, another condition I took meds for for years. I did get surgery for it, but I think less alcohol, caffeine, and carbs is helping a lot too.

    Considering how many rx drugs I have tried over the years, the fact that I am now taking no regular systemic meds (nose spray only) is pretty awesome! Yay diet! Boo western medicine!

    (Well, there are many things I like about western medicine, like my jaw surgery, but when it comes to chronic illness, I think the mainstream is often very wrong. Of course, my beliefs are based on other parts of western medicine, just fringier ones)
    jon_leonard
    4:32p
    Chekhov's pie
    If there's a pie on the mantel in the first act, then it should be thrown at someone by the third act. Similarly, if someone is hit by a pie in the third act, the pie should have been visible in the first act.
    ch
    2:46p
    Willie Brown on Sarah Palin!
    [ i honestly don't have an opinion on the subject, but i do like arguments against conventional wisdom.  think what you will of willie brown, but there should be no doubt that he knows of political instincts. ]

    Willie's World
    Sarah Palin, political genius

    The pundits are wrong. Conventional wisdom is wrong. Sarah Palin's decision to step down as Alaska governor was a brilliant move.

    Palin has some of the best political instincts I have ever seen. She became a pop-culture superstar overnight when John McCain made her his veep pick, and she's still second only to President Obama among politicians the public is interested in. Even in liberal San Francisco, she'd be front-page news if she ever came to town.

     

    […. the rest:  http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/07/12/BA9A18MCT5.DTL .... ]

     


    anne_nahm
    1:46p
    Playin' Checkers on a Chess Set
    So if you happen to find yourself cutting up a jalapeno pepper, and you know you should wear some sort of protection like they do on the cooking shows because of all the hot ass capsaicin in peppers, but your kitchen isn't stocked with latex surgical gloves, and you feel strongly that your winter mittens just won't work, you may say to yourself, "screw this. I'm going in bareback to cut these muthas. You heard me. My fingers be tough. I got some burny fingers? I'll just wander over and pinch my husband on the ass later and share the joy."
    patrissimo
    12:02p
    waiting
    Re-listening to Th Power of Now, b/c despite all the mystical bullshit it has much awesomeness. (Btw, those who said get the audiobook were totally right). It is talking about how you should never wait, and I agree. Waiting is pretty much always a mistake, because there is always something better to do, like breathing, thinking, exercising, or watching.

    (You see that waiting in this context doesn't mean just being somewhere because of a future appointment, like sitting in the doctors office, it refers to your state of mind while there).

    I do very little waiting nowadays, mostly because of smartphones, but also because I have learned that it isn't fun and I can almost always find something better to do.
    patrissimo
    10:43a
    tiger tai chi shoes
    Great for lifting. Soles are pretty thin. A little annoying that they are lace-up, I prefer shoes I can put on quickly. But overall, pretty nice shoes, minimal support. The bright white I got doesn't go with many of my normal clothes, unfortunately.
    furfybird
    3:39a
    whipartist
    2:00a
    Printing printing printing
    For once in my life, I'm not putting off something critical until the very last minute. It's a miracle!

    I'm getting ready to print images for ErosFestNW. Tonight I got really friendly with Photoshop for a while, working on the images that are going up there, and printing proofs. When I thought I had everything right I wanted to see the image full-size, but it's hard to do a 24x24 image on a 13" wide printer. No problem! I have ingenuity. I'll just print it in chunks.

    This is a phonecam shot of the assembled image, so it looks pretty bad, but the real one looks pretty good.

    This image is, uhh, not safe for work. Duh! )
    Monday, July 13th, 2009
    patrissimo
    11:54p
    encounters with alphas...from the woman's side.
    How is it that us women have the unique ability, (similar to that of a cruise missile) to find, attract and date the only emotionally/physically unavailable man in the entire dating market?
    ...
    We pick men who (deep down we know) are emotionally/physically/in some form unavailable to date or commit to us in any way.

    Why do we pick these men? Because they are safe. Because we tell ourselves, "hey I can be totally vulnerable and open with this guy, because it ain't going to go anywhere".

    So you flirt, act normal, have no inhibitions and feel completely cool, collected and comfortable. What you are in fact doing; is digging your own grave.

    Why? Because you are opening yourself up to a man .. who has the emotionally availability of a toothbrush.

    But because you are being so open and vulnerable, it allows for the development of a spark of forbidden undeniable attraction.
    From "Why Do You Attract Emotionally Unavaliable Men?" (sic).

    Because they are safe? No, it's because their behavior signaled high status in the evolutionary environment.
    ch
    10:33p
    heavens to murgatroid!
    I updated the ol' web site:

    http://www.murgatroid.com/

    Mainly I revised the professional info and added a new resume.  

    I still need to pull the pubs section together.  Soon'ish ....
    patrissimo
    8:29p
    For poker players: Charity Poker Tournament Poll
    This poll is for a charity poker tournament we may put on at as part of an Ephemerisle fundraiser next month. Please answer it based on how you'd feel about any charity poker tournament for a non-profit cause you were interested in, whether or not you care about Ephemerisle. If you would never play a charity poker tournament, don't answer. Note that unlike last weekend's event, there will be no Playboy Playmates present.

    Poll #1429464 Charity Poker Tournament
    Open to: All, detailed results viewable to: All

    What entry fee would you pay to play in a charity poker tournament for a cause you like?

    View Answers

    $10
    1 (3.8%)

    $25
    4 (15.4%)

    $50
    4 (15.4%)

    $100
    11 (42.3%)

    $200 or more
    6 (23.1%)

    How much of the prize pool would you expect to be returned in prizes?

    View Answers

    Nothing - just max props for winning and a trophy
    4 (14.8%)

    10% - one decent prize for the winner
    4 (14.8%)

    25% - decent prizes for top few places
    12 (44.4%)

    50% - closer to a normal payout structure, although of course less places and smaller prizes
    7 (25.9%)


    Thanks!
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